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Featured news — posted September 7, 2004
More important to invest time, money in marketing during a slowdown than at any other time

Stop us if you've heard it: The mortgage boom is almost over. Yes, it's been almost over since about November, 2002, but who's counting anymore? Home sales are in record territory, Freddie Mac's benchmark 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit a five month low last week, and August, though down from July, saw an amazing 1.379 million transactions pass through our Mercury servers, a leading indicator that there continues to be a robust mortgage pipeline.

But the Fed has stared hiking the federal funds rate, the economy is improving — much of the recent spate of cash-out refinancing has been driven by hard times in the broader economic arena — and lenders, your customers, are bracing for a downturn. Which means they're planning on spending less. There aren't suddenly going to be fewer appraisers, so with less money to go around, how do you stay at top of mind when your best clients need the services of a professional appraiser?

Sam Walton, asked about his plans for a recession, once famously answered, "We don't plan to participate." He didn't, and his company's doing o.k. today. Walton believed the old saw that when times are good, you should market your goods or services, and when times are bad, you must market your goods or services.

A McGraw Hill Research study of U.S. recessions, analyzing 600 companies over a five-year period emerging from an economic downturn, found that firms which had maintained or increased advertising during tough times averaged 275 percent sales growth in the five years coming out, while those who cut back on advertising grew only 19 percent.

The biggest factor driving this reality is human nature. Many of your competitors will spend less — and we're talking about resources and effort as much as we're talking about money — on marketing when orders start to peter out. By simply maintaining your current level of marketing, you will "gain" in visibility and be top of mind to your clients.

Beyond the human calculus, there's good old-fashioned market research: Companies that regard marketing as an investment rather than an expense are shown to earn larger long term dividends. Marketing aggressively during a downturn projects an image of corporate confidence and stability. And it costs a great deal more to re-acquire customers or clients after you've lost them than it does to devote marketing money and efforts to keeping them.

Soon, Enterprise level Appraiser XSites will include a suite of services called XSell, which is a built in comprehensive marketing kit for appraisers. It will allow you to set up marketing campaigns wizard-style. You'll be able to send promotional or, better yet, informational campaigns to a contacts database that you create and XSites maintains and manages for you. XSell works in conjunction with Contacts and Scheduling so that you can set reminders for your campaigns which can be set up as a one time distribution or multiple scheduled distributions over time. XSell will also offer marketing aids for ongoing education refreshers.

We're developing XSell when we are because differentiation will be more important than ever as the current mortgage boom recedes. But even if you're not yet an XSite owner, there are a number of tips you can use to keep yourself in front of your current clients, and even gain new ones, when business slows:

  • Stay in contact. When you're dealing with a particular client on a weekly basis, you're never far from his or her mind. During longer periods between orders from that client, a personal e-mail or phone call keeps you in front of him or her. If you worry about seeming too "clingy," how about forwarding them an interesting article you found on the Internet (it would be great if it was from the a la mode e-Newsletter, but something from usatoday.com, Yahoo News, or anywhere)? Whether it's an article about something exceptionally important to them or not, remember the idea is to get your name in their mind. The personal touch of "I read this and thought you would find it interesting" adds value, too.
  • Be a resource. If your mortgage business dips, it's because your clients' business is slowing down, too. Be frank with your clients. "Remember those two week turn times from last summer? My volume, like yours, is a lot more manageable now. I'm able to turn assignments around more quickly than ever, I've invested in learning new techniques and tools for producing quality reports more quickly and efficiently (you can say this after Aurora comes out!), and my attention is more focused on the needs of my clients than ever." Asking for a client's business is always a good idea; offering them a good reason to give it to you is even better.
  • Understand your clients. Do you subscribe to National Mortgage News? Affordable Housing Finance? Your marketing is no good if not targeted to the specific concerns of a specific constituency. By spending some time each week or month reading what your clients are reading, subscribing to e-mail newsletters they may receive and generally following the news and developments in their industry that they do, you learn what they need, want and are interested in.

Some of these things are free and easy, some take time, and some take money. But investing time and money in marketing is more important during a down period than at any other time.


Making your coverage area your office

Appraiser offices have grown from one or two person shops to five or six or more during the recent boom. And rarely are all of those people in the same room. Making being spread out, in the field, in the office, en route to the next inspection or at the county building, an opportunity for efficiency rather than a contributor to inefficiency is the goal of a la mode's new Mobility Product Manager, Alonso Portillo.

Portillo, a nine year a la mode veteran, has been working almost exclusively on development of mobile tools for all a la mode customers for a year now, and in his new role plans to ensure seamless mobile integration with new and existing products. Ultimately, mobile workflow will be a focus for all of a la mode's products.

Among planned improvements include updating Pocket TOTAL to take advantage of new timesaving features and workflow management in WinTOTAL Aurora, due out in the next couple months. He'll also head up development of mobile tools for XSites, with the goal of having access to all your data, whether in WinTOTAL, on your XSite or in the field. More important than synching up the data is synching up the people using it.

"If we can tie people in the field to the people in the office, that allows for better coordination which leads to better customer service, which leads to retaining existing clients and acquiring new ones," Portillo said.

Individual productivity will be enhanced through the ability to access instant driving directions, flood zone maps, and even local weather in the field or between inspections. With Enterprise XSites, appraisers will be able to accept credit card payments at the door. And more broadly, whatever an appraiser needs while on an inspection or researching comps, he or she will have — comps databases, order status, contacts and scheduling functions, and the ability to enter important information in the field and be done with it.

Portillo will also head up implementation of mobility functions for a la mode's products for real estate agents, mortgage lenders and inspectors.

Appraisers have too often been treated as just formfillers, especially by companies that produce formfilling software. An important part of a la mode's commitment to making appraisers more productive, efficient and profitable is our emphasis on and dedication to developing mobile tools.


Data show no signs of anticipated housing price deceleration

The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) released its quarterly House Price Index last week and said the 9.36 percent jump in property values from second quarter 2003 to second quarter 2004 was the largest one-year increase ever. For the quarter, prices were up 2.21 percent, an annualized rate of 8.83 percent.

The quarterly appreciation is more than 50 percent faster than the upward revised 1.45 percent increase in the first quarter of 2004. Over the past four quarters, house price rises far exceeded gains in the prices of non-housing goods and services incorporated into the Consumer Price Index. House prices rose 9.36 percent, while the price of other goods and services rose 3.03 percent, OFHEO said.

The states gaining the most in the quarter were Nevada, Hawaii, California and Rhode Island, while the smallest increases were seen in Utah, Texas and Indiana. Unlike in previous quarters, no state saw negative growth. Most northeastern seaboard states, from Virginia upward, experienced double-digit year-over-year appreciation, with only Massachusetts at 9.79 percent the exception.

The top 10 designated Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) for price appreciation were Las Vegas, Riverside-San Bernardino, CA, Fresno, CA, Fort Pierce-Port St. Lucie, FL, Orange County, CA, Los Angeles-Long Beach, Ventura, CA, Bakersfield, CA, San Diego, and Reno, NV. The bottom five were Boulder-Longmont, CO, Provo-Orem, UT, Lafayette, IN, Elkhart-Goshen, IN and Austin-San Marcos, TX.

Rural areas — those outside MSAs — saw house prices grow less quickly than those in MSAs, but still faster than other consumer goods and services.

OFHEO's index is culled from data obtained from mortgages securitized by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, two of the entities OFHEO regulates.

“House prices may become increasingly vulnerable to potential sustained higher interest rates in the future, but that has not happened so far,” said OFHEO Chief Economist Patrick Lawler. “Second quarter data do not fully reflect increases in borrowing costs in the spring of this year because of the timing lag between sales agreements or appraisals, and mortgage closings. Since then, mortgage rates have eased, however, and the prospects of substantial increases in the near future appear to have declined,” Lawler said.

  
News briefs
AVM market share at five percent: report
In the wake of "six executives from six different mortgage technology companies" who did not want to be named telling National Mortgage News that Fannie Mae was suddenly accepting Automated Valuation Models (AVMs) in lieu of appraisals — see
our report last week — it's been popular to trot out the line that the "biggest obstacle" to widespread AVM usage in lieu of human appraisals has been Fannie and Freddie's reluctance to embrace them.

Two items, one recent and one not, ding that theory a little. In the September 2004 edition of Bank Technology News, the publication pegs AVM market share at about five percent. "But there are good reasons that AVM usage is not more widespread," the publication said. "The two primary culprits are the lack of housing data in many geographic regions to feed the models, and unanswered questions about how well the AVMs work since they haven't been in use for long." No mention of the GSEs. Fannie and Freddie's opinion of AVMs is influenced by the same thing appraisers' opinions are: whether they work or not. It's that simple.

The other item was an Inman News report that Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are now funding loans for purchases without traditional appraisals being required and are using AVMs of their own design. Patricia Boerger, Freddie spokesperson, told Inman the program is offered only on first mortgages on single family homes and to borrowers who have excellent credit and who have made a downpayment of at least 20 percent of the home's purchase price. Relevant to the present discussion: This report was published in May, 2001.

Cynics might suspect six executives from six mortgage technology companies who do not wish to be named of trying to sensationalize what isn't really news.

Schools big influence on housing values
A recent
CNN Money article explored the effect of the quality of a school district on house price appreciation. As the article points out, there is a cause and effect question: Do great schools boost the value of properties in the district, or do high value homes with higher property taxes lead to better funding, leading to better schools?

Still, a fairly obvious correlation exists. By way of example, in the Chicago area, Oak Park, whose schools scored a 98/99 rating on standardized test scores, saw 10 year home price appreciation of 78.8 percent, while Bartlett, whose schools scored 28, saw values go up 41.3 percent. In the Pittsburgh area, Freedom area schools (whose alumni include the Official Wife and Sisters In Law of your indefatigable newsletter editor) scored 95 and saw properties appreciate by 98.7 percent; Duquesne, whose schools scored a 10, saw property values rise just 25.5 percent.

Employment data could lead to new Fed rate increase
Friday's report of 144,000 jobs added to the economy opens the door for the Fed to raise the federal funds rate again at its September meeting, Wachovia Securities economists speculated. "Higher short term rates are not likely to slow economic growth significantly nor should higher rates lead to recession," the firm's Economic Group said in a report to investors. "Interest rates alone do not drive the economy."

The firm said it expects mortgage rates to rise the rest of the year and for housing starts and new home sales to cool. "Rising interest rates and lower housing starts are consistent with an economy moving from recovery to expansion."

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e-Newsletter archives


e-Newsletter 9/2/04
Fannie will need appraisers more, not less

e-Newsletter 8/24/04
Time for a true business e-mail

e-Newsletter 8/17/04
Value IT will change its name

See full archives

Events


Where we'll be in the coming weeks:

September Seminars: Indianapolis, IN
9/11 Formfilling Essentials
9/12 Paperless Office Techniques

September Hands-On Training: Oklahoma City, OK
9/17 - 9/18

See a full schedule here.

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