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Featured news — posted May 11, 2004
On the good guys' side in the AVM debate

Three weeks ago we told you about Fitch Ratings, an investment risk assessment firm, deciding to discount the value of residential mortgage backed securities in soft or weak markets where anything less than a full appraisal was used to value the collateral. The move has generated quite a bit of publicity for the appraisers vs. AVMs debate, some of which we noted last week.

American Banker wrote a 1,000 word story in its May 4 edition entitled "Automated Appraisal Industry Rakes Fitch Discount Move." As is clear from the headline, the story was mostly an opportunity for AVM advocates to defend the proposition that AVMs are just as reliable as appraisals. A lender representative was quoted as saying "The same data used in AVMs is being used by appraisers."

This, of course, is not true, and a la mode founder and CEO Dave Biggers made that point in a letter to the editor of American Banker, which the widely-read trade publication ran in its May 7 edition.

"The primary source of data used by almost every AVM in the country is public records, but that data is largely compiled by data-entry personnel overseas who sort through crateloads of plain old paper shipped in from the States," the letter stated. "That process takes at least 60 days, and then the data has to be reintegrated into the models after it's distributed to the various first- and second-tier AVM providers.

"Also, that data is sent overseas only after closing, not at the time the contract is being written, which is the real date of the buyer and seller's agreement on the price. That throws in another 30 days at the very minimum, usually more."

To the contrary, the appraiser sees and considers — must consider, under USPAP — sales that were marked as sold on the local MLS as of just yesterday, the letter pointed out. The appraiser also considers what listings expired just yesterday, what sales closed just yesterday, and what listings came on the market just yesterday.

"No AVM can see over the hill; it can only adjust relatively linearly with respect to data it's already seen," it said. "If the market shift is occurring right now, the past data won't reflect that, and it will continue to apply the positive or negative time adjustments for another 120 days or so, because the shifted data isn't even a strong enough trend at first to outweigh the 90 days of upward-trending data."

Appraisal Intelligence, a high-end source of business and technology news for appraisal industry participants, held a previously-scheduled audio seminar April 29 on AVMs at which Fitch's decision was a hot topic. The newsletter devoted most of its Fitch-centric coverage to its pro-AVM panel. However, it did run a snippet from our April 20 e-newsletter (which it erroneously attributed to Dave Biggers) that said how delighted we are about Fitch's decision, "because it's good for our customers."

We said AVM vendors would either have to prove their products are reliable enough to support underwriting decisions, or mortgage originators would have to acknowledge they can't do business with AVMs on first mortgages. "Either way, appraisers and homebuyers win," we said.

Kenneth Harney's nationally-syndicated real estate column was devoted this weekend to the Fitch/AVM story as well. Appearing in the Washington Post, Chicago Tribune, Miami Herald and many other major newspapers, the column asked the question, "Does it matter if your lender uses a live appraiser, an online property value database or a quick 'drive-by'?

"You bet it does — especially now," it concluded. Harney speculated that individual consumers would feel the effects soon enough. "For some home buyers, [this] could mean paying $350 to $500 for a traditional appraisal rather than $50 to $100 for an alternative valuation. It could also mean longer processing times for loans to move from application to closing."

We told you back in our April 20 edition that Fitch's move would be felt quickly. Harney agreed. "Look for a renewed emphasis on old-fashioned, on-site appraisals in many parts of the country," he wrote. "If the bond investors who put up the money for your mortgage want a real, live appraiser to visit the house that you are buying, they're likely to get their way."

"Reversing" how you work with lenders

Southern California-based origination giant IndyMac Bank last week announced it would acquire all but six and a quarter percent of Financial Freedom Holdings Inc., the nation's largest reverse mortgage lender with $976 million in reverse mortgage loans in 2003.

Reverse mortgages are becoming increasingly popular with American homeowners 62 or older. The FHA calls them Home Equity Conversion Loans (HECMs), because they provide older Americans a monthly payment secured by the equity in their home. Essentially, instead of paying the lender each month, the lender pays the homeowner. The loan does not become due and payable until the homeowner no longer lives in the home. The balance may be repaid by the sale of the home once unoccupied. The repayment amount can never exceed the value of the home, minus costs of the sale.

The program's burgeoning popularity owes itself to a few different factors. Today's seniors are far less debt-averse than their predecessors, who may have grown up during the Great Depression. Today's baby boomers have lived with debt — mortgage, credit card, auto and student loans, and so on — all their lives. Investments and pensions have taken a pounding in recent years and older Americans and the people who care for them are attracted to the contractual certainty of a monthly payment amount. The cost of health care, home maintenance and many other things have skyrocketed in recent years. Loan proceeds, whether paid in a lump sum, monthly or as a line of credit, are tax free. And there are many more seniors, as baby boomers reach retirement age and people generally live longer, than there ever were before.

An appraisal — a full appraisal, in case Fitch Ratings is listening — by an FHA-roster appraiser is required to close an FHA-insured HECM.

The condition of the subject property is more important when reporting an opinion of value for a reverse mortgage. The lender is waiting for a date (hopefully) far into the future to be repaid, and is therefore even more interested in what work might need to be done to ensure the property stays in good shape. For the FHA program, in fact, any amount necessary for repairs must be set aside from the loan proceeds, and the work performed after the loan closes.

The same appraiser who did the original assignment will then be sent out to the subject again to ensure necessary repairs were done, usually for around a $50 to $75 fee.

In addition to a keen eye for necessary repairs, reverse mortgage work is high touch, with customer satisfaction arguably more important than in first mortgage origination. The majority of the time, the lender client who ordered the first mortgage appraisal is going to sell the loan on the secondary market, and will literally never see the borrower again. The relationship continues in a HECM transaction. And the last thing any business, even mortgage lenders, want is to be accused of mistreating elderly customers.

So why might you be interested in reverse mortgage work? There are a number of reasons.

  • The qualifications necessary to do reverse mortgage appraisals amount to more than being state licensed. Your expertise is likely to be more highly valued.
  • It's all full fee work. And not only that, you can pick up another 10 to 25 percent on top of your fee if you need to revisit the property after mandatory repairs are completed.
  • It's growing while refinancing and (maybe?) purchases are slowing down. The National Reverse Mortgage Lenders Association reported last month that HECM volume was up 112 percent over a year ago. Volume for February 2004 was a monthly record, it said, with 4,148 loans closed compared to 1,113 in February 2003.
  • Here's the best part: almost no lender pressure. Remember, the loan payoff once the home is no longer occupied can never exceed the property's value. Unlike with first mortgage originations and refinances, there is no financial incentive to hitting the highest number possible. If the value is inflated and the loan becomes payable within a short time, and the home's value is less than the outstanding balance, it's not the borrower who's left holding the bag, it's the lender.

That last part might be the best "reversal" of all.

  
News briefs
Nothing slowing down here
1,801,226 appraisal reports passed through our Mercury servers in April, the third highest monthly total ever, trailing only March 2004 and July 2003. March and April 2004 were easily our servers' busiest two consecutive months on record. The size of the files passing through did set an all time record: Our servers handled 1,974.76 gigabytes of data in April, slightly more than March (which saw slightly more files).

For the 12 months ending April 30, 17,866,148 appraisal reports passed through our servers, or 18,689.75 gigabytes — 18.7 terabytes — of data. That's nearly (off by about a terabyte) how big the entire printed collection of the U.S. Library of Congress would be if fully digitized — and then doubled.

Other than appraisers and mortgage lenders, digital camera makers should be happiest to see the trend in our server stats. In July 2003, about 1.8 million files passed through our servers, sized at 1,872 gigabytes. Last month, about 1.8 million files again passed through, this time 1,974 gigabytes, a file size increase of more than five percent. We speculate this is due to more digital pictures being included in appraisal reports. Unless you folks are using Mercury to exchange MP3s, or something.

Fannie busted on manufactured housing collateral
The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO), government watchdog over the practices of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, demanded Thursday that Fannie change the way it accounts for the value of its loans secured by manufactured housing collateral. OFHEO charged that the government sponsored housing enterprise was failing to accurately report earnings volatility and impairment of its MH portfolio.

Fannie this week agreed to adopt a new accounting rule that would more accurately reflect the value of its MH collateral, avoiding having to restate earnings. Fannie will write down its $8.3 billion portfolio of manufactured housing and aircraft lease (don't ask us) securities by an estimated $240 million to $260 million, depending on credit ratings, end-of-quarter market prices, and other factors.

Fraud, seller contributions on everyone's mind
We received so much e-mail feedback on our articles the last two weeks (click
here and here) about mortgage fraud and seller contributions inflating property values that we can't possibly do justice to all the great comments and suggestions we received. That doesn't mean we're not going to try, though, in a future edition.

Many of you wondered whether there was a solution to inflated values and the lender pressure that drives them beyond going out of business. We say, yes, there is, because as we reported above the country's appraisers are doing more work than ever — and only a very small percentage of them are "playing ball" with the commissioned part of the mortgage transaction.

One suggestion we got from a few of you was for "owner's estimate of value" to be outlawed — make it mandatory that an appraiser never see what number the owner, borrower, broker, agent, whoever "thinks" the appraiser ought to hit. While we're cynical (or realistic?) enough to think that wouldn't stop anyone from making very clear what number they want some other way, we think that's a great idea. And you had lots more, that we'll digest for you in a future e-newsletter.

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Send tips and feedback to the editor: mattb@alamode.com.

e-Newsletter archives



e-Newsletter 5/4/04
Seller concessions, contributions artificially pumping up values

e-Newsletter 4/27/04
Mortgage fraud inflating property values nationwide

e-Newsletter 4/20/04
Beginning of the end for AVMs

See full archives

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