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Featured news — posted April 20, 2004
Beginning of the end for AVMs

Fitch Ratings doesn't like AVMs.

Neither do we and probably neither do you, but when Fitch Ratings speaks, things happen.

Here's an example. The mortgage lending industry has been lobbying for years now for a federal predatory lending law. The stated reason is that it costs too much (and this is passed on to borrowers) and is too confusing to have to follow hundreds of different predatory lending laws, on the state and local level. And this is true. The unstated but just as important reason is that Congress is more malleable and easier to throw "resources" at than hundreds of lawmaking bodies around the country.

But so far it hasn't been successful, despite mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and mortgage investors joining forces with no less a powerhouse lobby than that of the GSEs. Congress has yet to affirmatively say it's taking over predatory lending and the states and cities can sit it out. In the meantime, Fannie and Freddie and their mortgage industry pals pick their spots and try to lobby states to ease up on their predatory lending regulations, with success in fits and starts. Fannie Mae — the public interest outfit chartered to help people buy homes — got into a little trouble a couple years ago for threatening not to help any Californians buy homes unless the Golden State failed to enact its proposed predatory lending rules, the Wall Street Journal alleged.

But the most dramatic reversal of a state from what the mortgage lobby considered constrictive predatory lending legislation occurred in Georgia last year. Georgia lawmakers hastily met to pass new rules taking some of the teeth out of its fang-filled predatory lending laws. At the behest of the mortgage lobby? No.

Fitch Ratings, which provides investors with opinions as to the creditworthiness of the companies and other entities they invest in, said it was reluctant to rate companies that bought mortgage backed securities (MBS) for mortgages originating from Georgia. It couldn't be sure if years down the road the company that bought the mortgage could be sued and socked with damages for the predatory practices of the mortgage originator, because the connection between buyer and originator was too loosey-goosey under the Georgia law. Furthermore, "predatory" practice under the law was very broadly defined and it was essentially too easy to get into trouble. All this uncertainty led it to say it wouldn't rate certain MBSs.

Fast forward to this week, when Fitch Ratings announced its "concern" that "under certain weakening housing conditions, any valuation method other than a full appraisal is likely to overestimate property value." It's not just AVMs, either.

"Non-full appraisal techniques, such as AVMs, rely on public data that is ordinarily several months old. In rising markets, AVMs rely on housing price data that is slightly lower than current market conditions. However, in declining markets, the AVM may overestimate property values given current market conditions. It is also true for desktop review appraisals to the extent that they rely on older, higher-priced comparables and that the reviewer is unaware of currently declining housing prices. Finally, drive-by valuations are by nature very limited in scope, which hinders the accuracy of the price opinion."

Accordingly, Fitch said, it will decrease the values of mortgaged properties for loans with "non-full appraisals" that originate in "weak" or "soft" markets in RMBS pools. It identified those markets as Salt Lake City-Ogden, UT; San Jose, CA; and Denver, CO (weak); Memphis, TN-AR-MS; Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC; Albuquerque, NM; Atlanta, GA; Grand Rapids-Muskegon-Holland, MI; East South Central, Detroit, MI; Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN, Dallas, TX; Greenville-Spartanburg-Anderson, SC; Akron, OH; Indianapolis, IN; Dayton-Springfield, OH; Cleveland-Lorain-Elyria, OH; Columbus, OH; Toledo, OH; Baton Rouge, LA; San Francisco, CA; Columbia, SC; Tulsa, OK; and Houston, TX (soft).

Ironically, the "weak" and "soft" markets are identified as areas where property values are declining relative to the aggregate United States according to home price data from Case Shiller Weiss, a property research firm that puts out one of the more popular AVMs (CSW CASA).

"Fitch does not differentiate between vendors of alternative appraisals and AVMs nor does Fitch express preferences regarding alternative valuation tools as a secondary valuation type," Fitch said.

We're delighted at this news, because it's good for our customers. One of two things has to happen. AVM vendors, for the first time ever, will have to prove their products are reliable enough to support origination decisions, which we believe they will fail spectacularly to do. Or, on top of AVMs having failed to gain any appreciable market share in first mortgages — even during the most historically busy mortgage activity period in human history — this announcement will force the mortgage industry, which has invested so much hope in automated values, to acknowledge they simply can't do business with them anymore on first liens.

Either way, appraisers and homebuyers win.

Next step in Mercury evolution on tap

The Mercury Network, our server hub which routed more than 17.5 million appraisal reports in the last 12 months, and its user interface, Mercury Desktop, are too often confused with one another. One of our competitors formulates and executes entire business plans on the premise of providing an alternative for appraisers who don't want to pay to use the Mercury Network; the Mercury Network is free to use. (Don't tell them.)

Mercury Desktop is a tool that makes using the Mercury Network easier and more efficient. In the coming weeks and months, Mercury Desktop will be renamed and rebranded to better differentiate it from the free Mercury Network. But we're not just dressing it up. It will also grow to become a true collaboration tool, addressing the ad-hoc nature of appraiser-to-appraiser workflow on shared/supervisory projects as well as the mobile and distributed nature of appraisers.

At the same time, Mercury Network will be intentionally shrunk down. Mercury Network's greatest marketing weakness in the appraisal community is its own popularity. Tens of thousands of orders come into Mercury every week, and that continues to grow at a steady pace even as the market activity supposedly levels off. But there are simply too many appraisers per county, and there are too many ways for an appraiser or small management company to add themselves to areas in the directory that they don't really serve, bumping up the number of appraisers per county even further.

We'll be restricting the Mercury Network listings to appraisers who have an Appraiser XSite, to restrict an XSite listing in the Network to a given number of reasonable counties (say, 10 counties), and to direct the orders straight to that appraiser's XSite from within the Mercury interface. That way, Mercury Network itself isn't "in the middle" between you and your client.

Once the client finds you in the list for a county and clicks on your link, they see only your own branding and logo from then on. With the large number of XSites users out there, we'll have full nationwide coverage and yet each county will be small enough that the orders will be more concentrated among the appraisers in that county -- and the ones who get the orders know what to do with them, since they came in from their own XSite. There will still be no charge for a Mercury Network listing.

The revised and renamed Mercury Desktop will then simply be getting orders from and posting status to your own XSite and to and from lenders or AMCs with plugins. However, on the lender side, our upcoming Mortgage XSites, which are already getting great press before even having been released, will generate instant plugins for each lender or broker who owns a Mortgage XSite. So the number of plugins will grow dramatically. They'll be broken down geographically to reduce confusion. And when you get an order from one, the plugin configuration file will come with it so you'll have it instantly.

Appraiser XSites will become more of a central hub product due to their "24 x 7, always on" nature. And, Mercury Desktop, Mercury Network, WinTOTAL, and other products will all tie into an XSite for extra features. They can all work standalone, but having them all is a classic case of the whole being greater than the sum of its parts. And with our new Elite program, doing that is easier and cheaper than ever.

More information on these exciting new changes in the coming weeks!

VA appraisal process has kept veterans out of homes, paper says

The VA loan, and more specifically, the appraisal process it triggers, is getting the cold shoulder in Hampton Roads, an area regarded by some as the military capital of the nation, a disturbing piece in the Virginian-Pilot, Hampton Roads' daily, reported.

Some real estate agents are waving off buyers who qualify for these mortgages with implicit language such as “conventional financing only’’ on listings that can be found in the local multiple listing service REIN, Inc. Other agents are more explicit and boldly writing “NO VA’’ or “NO VA, NO FHA LOANS’’ on the listings, the paper said.

“How do you go to a Marine who was in Basra six weeks ago and tell him you don’t want his offer?’’ Tom Lira, a loan officer with AccuBank Mortgage in Chesapeake, asked. “When they start posting that FHA and VA contracts aren’t welcome, it’s against the American way. There’s something terribly unfair and unfriendly about it.’’

In a recent training video VA fee appraisers nationwide must watch as part of their training, Hampton Roads is cited as a "prime example" of “the real estate community showing an unwillingness to deal with VA appraisals.”

William "Sandy" Stewart, chief of construction and valuation for the VA, said that he launched a pilot project in Hampton Roads in 2002 that is beginning to pay dividends now that it is national policy. As we reported here, VA appraisers are encouraged to contact the lender or listing agent when they can’t justify a property value at the sales price. This allows agents to provide different comparables and data so appraisers can consider adjusting the values. Disputed values now must be reviewed and resolved in five days, not two weeks. And typically the disputes are resolved in 24 hours, often in favor of the deal, Stewart said.

  
News briefs
New XSites levels coming
We're announcing improvements to Appraiser XSites that will make available valuable new features, both to existing and new XSites owners. Version 2.0 of Appraiser XSites, set for release next month, will include new tools to save you more time and money. Included is a brand new XSites Wizard, credit card processing, mobile tools and more.

You'll have access to collection letters to "remind" foot-dragging clients to pay up. New virus-protected CertMail accounts will be accessible from anywhere, including your PDA and certain cell phones. Contact management and scheduling will help you stay organized. XSites' "resume builder" and automated e-mail and print marketing campaigns will help you get new business.

Click here to learn more about special pre-release pricing available through April 30.

Overwhelming majority thinks housing is both safe, profitable investment
Fannie Mae released its 2003
National Housing Survey (link to PDF) last week. Among the findings: More than four in five Americans (84 percent) say a major reason to own a home is that it is a good long-term investment, which is nearly identical to the response rate (82 percent) in the 2002 survey. This year's survey finds that a majority of Americans (61 percent) view homeownership as the best of both worlds — a safe investment with a lot of potential. This response is down somewhat from 2002 (70 percent), but still quite strong considering only 47 percent of respondents are optimistic about the economy as a whole, Fannie reported.

Appraisal Forum is now Valocity
Appraisal Forum, a fast-growing network of valuation service providers, has changed its name to Valocity, Shawn McGowan, company president, said. "The name Valocity, which represents value and speed, better portrays our vision to become the premier valuation solutions provider, nationwide," he said.

Former HUD chief Cuomo calls for appraisal reform
Writing in the April 16 American Banker, Andrew Cuomo, former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development under Bill Clinton, called the appraisal system the "weakest link in the homebuying chain" and said it's time for an overhaul.

"Bank and broker pressure on 'independent' appraisers to arrive at 'the right number' to justify loans and the obvious conflict of interest with in-house bank appraisers have existed for too long," he wrote. "If home appraisals industrywide are inflated by just a few percentage points, bank reserves and the financial soundness of the GSEs would be shaken to the core."

As HUD's main man, Cuomo established the Real Estate Assessment Center (REAC) for FHA appraisals, which substantially lost its funding under President Bush.

The two million starts March
Housing starts shocked the consensus on the upside Friday morning, posting a 6.4 percent rise to 2.007 million, well above the consensus estimate of 1.90M. The gain reflects higher new home sales over the past few months as consumers have taken advantage of low mortgage rates, and a reversal of slow starts in a bad weather February, Wachovia Securities reported. Starts will slow from this pace over the next few months, the firm predicted.

"It should come as no surprise that single family starts once again were strong last month," Gina Martin, economist with Wachovia Securities, said. "Starts of single family structures increased 5.5 percent in March to a level of 1.6 million. Though still strong, the trend in single family construction is clearly downward as of late, and we expect this trend to continue for the most part."

Last week we told you that a new mortgage boom was coming, and who are you going to believe, us or Wachovia Securities? All kidding aside, the strong permits and housing starts data squares with March being one of the busiest months ever for our Mercury servers.

Send tips and feedback to the editor: mattb@alamode.com.

e-Newsletter archives



e-Newsletter 4/13/04
New mortgage boom coming

e-Newsletter 4/6/04
IRS targeting number-hitters

e-Newsletter 3/31/04
Airing FIRREA's laundry on Capitol Hill

See full archives

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